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PREFACE
The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial
Intelligence, launched in the fall of 2014, is a
long-term investigation of the field of Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and its influences on people,
their communities, and society. It considers
the science, engineering, and deployment of
AI-enabled computing systems. As its core
activity, the Standing Committee that oversees
the One Hundred Year Study forms a Study
Panel every five years to assess the current state
of AI. The Study Panel reviews AI’s progress
in the years following the immediately prior
report, envisions the potential advances that
lie ahead, and describes the technical and
societal challenges and opportunities these
advances raise, including in such arenas as
ethics, economics, and the design of systems
compatible with human cognition. The
overarching purpose of the One Hundred Year
Study’s periodic expert review is to provide
a collected and connected set of reflections
about AI and its influences as the field advances. The studies are expected to develop
syntheses and assessments that provide expert-informed guidance for directions in
AI research, development, and systems design, as well as programs and policies to
help ensure that these systems broadly benefit individuals and society.1
The One Hundred Year Study is modeled on an earlier effort informally known as
the “AAAI Asilomar Study.” During 2008-2009, the then president of the Association
for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), Eric Horvitz, assembled a
group of AI experts from multiple institutions and areas of the field, along with
scholars of cognitive science, philosophy, and law. Working in distributed subgroups,
the participants addressed near-term AI developments, long-term possibilities,
and legal and ethical concerns, and then came together in a three-day meeting at
Asilomar to share and discuss their findings. A short written report on the intensive
meeting discussions, amplified by the participants’ subsequent discussions with other
colleagues, generated widespread interest and debate in the field and beyond.
The impact of the Asilomar meeting, and important advances in AI that included
AI algorithms and technologies starting to enter daily life around the globe, spurred
the idea of a long-term recurring study of AI and its influence on people and society.
The One Hundred Year Study was subsequently endowed at a university to enable extended deep thought and cross-disciplinary scholarly investigations that could
inspire innovation and provide intelligent advice to government agencies and industry.
This report is the first in the planned series of studies that will continue for at least
a hundred years. The Standing Committee defined a Study Panel charge for the
inaugural Study Panel in the summer of 2015 and recruited Professor Peter Stone,
at the University of Texas at Austin, to chair the panel. The seventeen-member
Study Panel, comprised of experts in AI from academia, corporate laboratories
and industry, and AI-savvy scholars in law, political science, policy, and economics,
was launched in mid-fall 2015. The participants represent diverse specialties and
geographic regions, genders, and career stages.
The Standing Committee extensively discussed ways to frame the Study Panel
charge to consider both recent advances in AI and potential societal impacts on jobs,
the environment, transportation, public safety, healthcare, community engagement,
and government. The committee considered various ways to focus the study,
including surveying subfields and their status, examining a particular technology
such as machine learning or natural language processing, and studying particular
application areas such as healthcare or transportation. The committee ultimately
chose a thematic focus on “AI and Life in 2030” to recognize that AI’s various uses
and impacts will not occur independently of one another, or of a multitude of other
societal and technological developments. Acknowledging the central role cities have
played throughout most of human experience, the focus was narrowed to the large
urban areas where most people live. The Standing Committee further narrowed the
focus to a typical North American city in recognition of the great variability of urban
settings and cultures around the world, and limits on the first Study Panel’s efforts.
The Standing Committee expects that the projections, assessments, and proactive
guidance stemming from the study will have broader global relevance and is making
plans for future studies to expand the scope of the project internationally As one consequence of the decision to focus on life in North American cities,
military applications were deemed to be outside the scope of this initial report. This
is not to minimize the importance of careful monitoring and deliberation about
the implications of AI advances for defense and warfare, including potentially
destabilizing developments and deployments.
The report is designed to address four intended audiences. For the general public,
it aims to provide an accessible, scientifically and technologically accurate portrayal
of the current state of AI and its potential. For industry, the report describes relevant
technologies and legal and ethical challenges, and may help guide resource allocation.
The report is also directed to local, national, and international governments to help
them better plan for AI in governance. Finally, the report can help AI researchers,
as well as their institutions and funders, to set priorities and consider the ethical and
legal issues raised by AI research and its applications.
Given the unique nature of the One Hundred Year Study on AI, we expect that
future generations of Standing Committees and Study Panels, as well as research
scientists, policy experts, leaders in the private and public sectors, and the general
public, will reflect on this assessment as they make new assessments of AI’s future. We
hope that this first effort in the series stretching out before us will be useful for both its
failures and successes in accurately predicting the trajectory and influences of AI.
The Standing Committee is grateful to the members of the Study Panel for
investing their expertise, perspectives, and significant time to the creation of this
inaugural report. We especially thank Professor Peter Stone for agreeing to serve as
chair of the study and for his wise, skillful, and dedicated leadership of the panel,
its discussions, and creation of the report.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a science and a set of computational technologies that
are inspired by—but typically operate quite differently from—the ways people use
their nervous systems and bodies to sense, learn, reason, and take action. While the
rate of progress in AI has been patchy and unpredictable, there have been significant
advances since the field’s inception sixty years ago. Once a mostly academic area of
study, twenty-first century AI enables a constellation of mainstream technologies that
are having a substantial impact on everyday lives. Computer vision and AI planning,
for example, drive the video games that are now a bigger entertainment industry than
Hollywood. Deep learning, a form of machine learning based on layered representations
of variables referred to as neural networks, has made speech-understanding practical
on our phones and in our kitchens, and its algorithms can be applied widely to an
array of applications that rely on pattern recognition. Natural Language Processing
(NLP) and knowledge representation and reasoning have enabled a machine to beat
the Jeopardy champion and are bringing new power to Web searches.
While impressive, these technologies are highly tailored to particular tasks. Each
application typically requires years of specialized research and careful, unique
construction. In similarly targeted applications, substantial increases in the future
uses of AI technologies, including more self-driving cars, healthcare diagnostics
and targeted treatments, and physical assistance for elder care can be expected. AI
and robotics will also be applied across the globe in industries struggling to attract
younger workers, such as agriculture, food processing, fulfillment centers, and
factories. They will facilitate delivery of online purchases through flying drones,
self-driving trucks, or robots that can get up the stairs to the front door.
This report is the first in a series to be issued at regular intervals as a part of the
One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100). Starting from a charge
given by the AI100 Standing Committee to consider the likely influences of AI in a
typical North American city by the year 2030, the 2015 Study Panel, comprising experts
in AI and other relevant areas focused their attention on eight domains they considered
most salient: transportation; service robots; healthcare; education; low-resource
communities; public safety and security; employment and workplace; and entertainment.
In each of these domains, the report both reflects on progress in the past fifteen years
and anticipates developments in the coming fifteen years. Though drawing from a
common source of research, each domain reflects different AI influences and challenges,
such as the difficulty of creating safe and reliable hardware (transportation and service
robots), the difficulty of smoothly interacting with human experts (healthcare and
education), the challenge of gaining public trust (low-resource communities and public
safety and security), the challenge of overcoming fears of marginalizing humans
(employment and workplace), and the social and societal risk of diminishing interpersonal
interactions (entertainment). The report begins with a reflection on what constitutes
Artificial Intelligence, and concludes with recommendations concerning AI-related
policy. These recommendations include accruing technical expertise about AI in
government and devoting more resources—and removing impediments—to research
on the fairness, security, privacy, and societal impacts of AI systems.
Contrary to the more fantastic predictions for AI in the popular press, the Study
Panel found no cause for concern that AI is an imminent threat to humankind.
No machines with self-sustaining long-term goals and intent have been developed,
nor are they likely to be developed in the near future. Instead, increasingly useful
applications of AI, with potentially profound positive impacts on our society and
economy are likely to emerge between now and 2030, the period this report considers.
At the same time, many of these developments will spur disruptions in how human labor is augmented or replaced by AI, creating new challenges for the economy
and society more broadly. Application design and policy decisions made in the near
term are likely to have long-lasting influences on the nature and directions of such
developments, making it important for AI researchers, developers, social scientists,
and policymakers to balance the imperative to innovate with mechanisms to ensure
that AI’s economic and social benefits are broadly shared across society. If society
approaches these technologies primarily with fear and suspicion, missteps that slow
AI’s development or drive it underground will result, impeding important work on
ensuring the safety and reliability of AI technologies. On the other hand, if society
approaches AI with a more open mind, the technologies emerging from the field
could profoundly transform society for the better in the coming decades.
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