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Author: M.R. Naghii

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216Rev Panam Salud Publica/Pan Am J Public Health18(3), 2005Temas de actualidad / Current topics

Public health

impact and medicalconsequences of earthquakes

M. R. Naghii

11University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. All correspondence

should be sent to this author at: No. 25, Bank Meli Alley, South Mad-

jidieh St., Tehran, Iran. P/C 16336. E-mail: mrnaghii@yahoo.comWorldwide, more than one million earthquakesoccur each year, an average of about two every

minute (1). Research indicates a 60% probability that

an earthquake of Richter magnitude 7.5 or greater

will occur on the San Andreas fault in southern Cal-

ifornia within the next 30 years, and a 50% probabil-

ity that an earthquake of 7.0 or greater magnitude

will occur on the San Andreas or Hayward faults in

the San Francisco Bay region within the same time

period (2). As previewed by the significant damages

resulting from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in

northern California (magnitude 7.1) and the 1994

Northridge earthquake in southern California (mag-

nitude 6.8), the impact of the predicted higher mag-

nitude earthquakes in California and the central

United States could potentially kill and injure thou-

sands of people, result in billions of dollars in prop-

erty loss, and cause severe disruptions to the United

States economy (3). Despite remarkable scientific

progress in seismology and earthquake engineering

during the past several years, achieving high stan-

dards of safety against earthquakes is a goal that has

yet to be achieved in many parts of the world.During the past 20 years, earthquakes alonehave caused more than a million deaths worldwide

(4). Nine countries (Armenia, Chile, China, Guate-

mala, Iran, Italy, Japan, Peru, and Turkey) account

for more than 80% of all fatalities in this century,

and almost half of the total number of earthquake

casualties in the world during this period have oc-

curred in China alone (5). Recently, fast urbaniza-

tion in other seismically active parts of the world

whose population densities reach 20000 to 60000

inhabitants per square kilometer makes such areas

vulnerable to similarly catastrophic numbers of

earthquake-related deaths and injuries. In just the

past 10 years, the world has witnessed four cata-

strophic earthquakes resulting in great loss of life:

in Mexico in 1985 (10000 deaths); in Armenia in

1988 (25000 deaths); in Iran in 1990 (40000 deaths);

and in India in 1993 (10000 deaths) (Table 1) (4).

The United States has been somewhat fortunate; it

has had relatively few earthquake-related casual-

ties so far; only an estimated 1 600 deaths have been

attributed to earthquakes since colonial times, with

over 60% of these having been recorded in Califor-

nia (6). The number of casualties caused by an

earthquake will depend on its magnitude, its prox-

imity to an urban center, and the degree of earth-

quake disaster preparedness and mitigation mea-

sures implemented in the urban center closest to

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