The probability of being tenured is going to be mainly based on the emphasis of your institution and what your role is. Are you in solely a teaching role? If so, how well-liked are you by the students? If you are at a research institution and your role is bringing in research dollars, you will likely need to be funded with federal monies to be competitive for earning tenure. Also, institutions want to see the trajectory of success. If you are going to win only one federally-funded grant, it is best to get it just before going up for tenure. If you get a grant your first year and nothing leading up to tenure, your trajectory seems to not be upward. Good luck!!